US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE: BNDES FUNNELING MONEY INTO BRAZILIAN SUGAR AND ETHANOL INDUSTRY, MAY BE STOKING OVERCAPACITY

While most plants in Brazil can produce both sugar and ethanol, about 150 of the country’s 420 plants are ethanol-only operations (previous post). Most were set up during the ethanol fever that took hold of the industry post-2006, when oil prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. government embarked on an all-out to promote the use of ethanol.

Highlights on the expansion of Brazil’s sugar and ethanol industry, taken from the USDA’s recently-released report on the 2009-2010 outlook for the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry:

Dropping sugar and ethanol prices during 2007 and 2008 and the global financial crisis in September 2008 became a major obstacle to new investments in 2009 and 2010, although investments in the sugar-ethanol sector had been growing steadily during the last few years. (Financing from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development - BNDES, the major federal bank funding new projects, increased from R$ 3.56 billion in 2007 to R$ 6.5 billion in 2008.) Credit has become scarce, to fund both sugar export operations and investments in new mills. The industry estimates that total credit to finance investments should drop from R$ 12 billion in 2008 to R$ 7 billion or less in 2009. Approximately 40 percent of the mills that were supposed to start running in 2009 (35 mills) have already postponed operations until 2010.

US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FORECASTS BRAZIL TO MILL 605 MILLION TONNES SUGARCANE IN 2009-2010, ETHANOL EXPORTS DROP

Inquiring minds are looking at the United States Department of Agriculture's GAIN (Global Agriculture Information Network) report on the 2009-2010 outlook for the Brazilian sugar and ethanol industry.

The numbers put out by the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, which has an office in Sao Paulo, are in line with those published at the end of April by Conab (previous post), the agency within the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture responsible for forecasting agricultural production in the country, and with the figures offered in early April by Plinio Nastari's Datagro (previous post), the leading sugar and ethanol consultancy in Brazil.

Highlights from the USDA's GAIN report:

"Sugarcane for crushing for MY 2009/10 is projected at 605 million metric tons (mmt), up 7 percent from the previous year, due to continuing area expansion. Sugar production is forecast to increase to 36.85 mmt, raw value. Sugar exports are forecast at 24.36 mmt, up 4.05 mmt from the previous year, due to expected lower supply from other producing countries such as India. Ethanol production for MY 2009/10 is forecast at 28.45 billion liters, while ethanol exports are expected to drop to 3.7 billion liters."

COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT PROJECTIONS
FOR CANE, ETHANOL AND SUGAR PRODUCTION
2009-2010 HARVEST YEAR - BRAZIL

	USDA	BRAZIL GOVERNMENT (CONAB)	DATAGRO
Total sugarcane for crushing (million tonnes)	605	622 – 634	598
Y-o-Y increase in sugarcane for crushing	7%	8.6% – 10.7%	5.72%
Sugar production (million tonnes)	36.85	36.42 – 37.91	35.2
Y-o-Y increase in sugar production	14%	Up to 17%	11.38%
Ethanol production (billion gallons)	7.53	7.35 – 7.57	7.38
Y-o-Y increase in ethanol production	4.6%	n/a	3.0%

Source: USDA, Datagro, Conab